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Bull market for exploration companies: CDFund +40%

Willem Middelkoop
Willem Middelkoop
·Sep 13, 2025 · 08:28·
Bull market for exploration companies: CDFund +40%

Bull market for exploration companies: CDFund +40%

Market Developments

 

Commodity Discovery Fund achieved a monthly return of +9.86% in August. This brought the Net Asset Value to 93.30 and a YTD result of +41.32%, with over €162 million under management.

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Nadat goud en zilver vorig jaar in maart al uitbraken, en de goudproducenten snel volgden (de goudmijnindex GDX bereikte inmiddels de 2011-high), lijkt de bullmarkt voor exploratiebedrijven nu eindelijk ook begonnen. Sinds de dip begin april zijn veel van onze kernposities al tientallen procenten gestegen, en zien we de koersstijgingen over een brede linie terug in onze portefeuille. Nadat de hogere koersen van goudproducenten eerst tot relatief veel winstnemingen en institutionele uitstroom leidden, zien ETF’s nu een instroom van geld naar deze sector. Bedrijven gebruiken de hernieuwde interesse om extra kapitaal op te halen voor nieuwe boorprogramma’s. 

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We receive private placements (private financings) almost daily. This way, we have already put nearly €10 million to work this year. Compared to normal stock purchases, the big advantage is that we obtain free warrants, which can be used to buy additional shares at a discount. Our warrant portfolio is currently worth nearly €3 million and provides additional leverage in a bull market. During such a rapidly rising market, we see our cheaply accumulated but still underground ounces quickly increase in value. Where an ounce of gold in a bear market is often worth only $20-40, that now quickly doubles.

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In addition to these ‘in-situ ounces’, owned by cash flow-negative exploration and development-stage companies, we have also invested a solid portion of the portfolio in producing mining companies. These are now seeing their cash flow and profits rising sharply. This portion of the portfolio is easy to hedge, resulting in a more balanced portfolio. After the strong growth of our assets to well over €160 million, we are becoming even more defensive, as even the strongest recovery movements sometimes lead to corrections of 20-30%.

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Als de euro niet zo sterk was geweest, dan was ons YTD-resultaat nog beter geweest. Met het aantreden van President Trump daalde de dollar dit jaar al 12%, waardoor de euro’s die wij investeren in Noord-Amerikaanse valuta’s een negatief valuta-effect opleveren. Dankzij onze gedeeltelijke valuta-hedges hebben we 30% van deze verliezen kunnen opvangen. De dollarkoers wordt verder beïnvloed door de strijd tussen Trump en de Fed in aanloop naar de eerste Amerikaanse renteverlaging, die hoogstwaarschijnlijk komende week wordt doorgevoerd. Zelfs de dovish tegenhanger van Trump, Fed-voorzitter Powell, hintte hierop tijdens Jackson Hole, het jaarlijkse Amerikaanse bankiersfestijn. Het wakkerde de goudrally alleen maar verder aan, waardoor de goudprijs in augustus de $3.500 per ounce (+5%) bereikte, terwijl zilver ruim voorbij de $40 per ounce schoot (+8%).

 

Our main concern is a major correction in the American markets. The total market value of American companies, divided by the U.S. GDP, is over 200%. This implies that the stock markets are currently heavily overvalued. Goldman Sachs is worried about a stagflation scenario, with contracting economies combined with rising prices. A return of inflation would be bad for the global economy, but of course good for our fund.

Een andere sterke nieuwe trend is de-globalisering. Met name Westerse landen richten zich weer op security of supply. Just in time heeft plaatsgemaakt voor just in case. In de huidige minder geïntegreerde wereld zijn grondstoffen weer zowel strategische activa als geopolitieke instrumenten. Goud en andere grondstoffen worden beschouwd als hedge tegen risico's, waar aandelen en obligaties je niet tegen kunnen beschermen. 

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Bonds decrease in value when interest rates rise.

Gold is leading this commodity cycle, with an 80% increase since the $2000 breakthrough last year. The inflationary scenario, along with the upcoming interest rate cuts and government stimuli, is likely to also reignite the copper rally. The price has hovered around $5 per pound for a few years now. The copper stocks index (COPX) is on the verge of breaking the $50 resistance, so copper stocks (20% of our fund) are also gearing up for a new rally.

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Agenda

In the upcoming period, the following CDFund events are on the agenda that might be of interest to you:

CDFund Lunch Meeting

Bent u mogelijk geïnteresseerd in een deelname in het Commodity Discovery Fund? Maar wilt u eerst nog wat meer van ons weten of nader kennismaken? Dan kunt zich aanmelden voor één van de lunchbijeenkomsten bij ons op kantoor in Aerdenhout.

In an interactive and small-scale setting, Willem Middelkoop extensively addresses the most recent market developments and how the fund responds to them with investments in commodities.

Vanwege de grote belangstelling zijn de eerstvolgende sessies al helemaal volgeboekt. Toch kunt u zich alvast bij ons melden, dan houden wij op de hoogte van nieuwe data. Aanmelden is mogelijk via deze link.

CDFund Regional Meeting

Commodity Discovery Fund is organizing two regional meetings this year. The regional meeting is similar to the lunch meeting but takes place at varying locations across the country and attracts more visitors.

 

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Registration is possible via this link.

In the media

Below is an overview of the media coverage of the Commodity Discovery Fund in the recent period:

[Webinar] LYNX Masterclass: The leap to hard assets

On September 2, 2025, Willem Middelkoop gave another Masterclass at the online broker LYNX about the structural developments within the global commodity markets. In one hour, he updates you on the 'debasement of currencies', rising national debts and interest payments, gold purchases by central banks, and the effect of this on the commodity markets.

[Video] Willem Middelkoop on Palisades Gold Radio

Willem Middelkoop discusses market dynamics with Tom Bodrovics and states that we are approaching an important market peak in the broader exchanges, possibly with a 70-80% correction in the coming decade. He spreads his wealth across precious metals, real estate, (commodity) stocks, and bitcoin. In particular, he is optimistic about precious metals, especially silver, which he considers undervalued and may reach a value of $100 per ounce within the next five to ten years.

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ATTENTION: This is an advertisement and not intended as investment advice. Investing involves risks, including market, concentration, and liquidity risks. Please consult the Essential Information Document and the Prospectus before making an investment decision.

Commodity Discovery Fund is an investment institution (common fund) under Dutch law with the status of an icbe (institution for collective investment in securities). The manager, Commodity Discovery Management B.V., has a license from the Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM) and is registered in the AFM registry.


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