CLIMATE ALERT ! OF THESE, EVERYONE SHOULD SIT UP STRAIGHT

OF THESE, EVERYONE SHOULD SIT UP STRAIGHT

Author : JAN ROTMANS 

Global warming has accelerated, according to recent studies. If the world's best climate researchers say they are surprised by the speed of climate change and that the world is entering uncharted territory, then we should be seriously worried. 

Measurement series indicate that the rate of climate change has accelerated from 0.18 degrees per decade during the period 1970-2010 to 0.26 degrees per decade now. For a year, from July last year to June this year, all months in a row were record warm, and the 1.5 degree rise, the unofficial climate goal of the Paris Agreement, reached 1.5 degrees. So we are certainly not going to achieve that climate target, nor the 2 degrees target most likely. 

There is no consensus yet on the causes of the acceleration of climate change, El Niño may explain part of the effect, but ironically, cleaner air seems to be an important factor: for example, shipping has emitted significantly less sulfur since 2020 due to an international treaty, and sulfur emissions in China have decreased by 75% since 2006. 
Less sulphur means extra solar radiation, which could be as much as 40% of the extra measured solar energy. But even then, half of the extra solar energy remains unexplained. Perhaps the albedo effect is an explanatory factor: less snow and ice reflect less sunlight, which increases warming. 

Many climate researchers get nervous because they observe things that they can no longer explain properly. I noticed this myself years ago when I spoke to polar researchers in Greenland and Svalbard who measured temperature increases that were beyond all expectations.

The consequence of all this will be that in the coming years we will have to deal with extreme weather events that will become more extreme, so-called super extremes: what occurs once every 100 years can then occur once every 10 years. Think of extreme heat waves, over land but also in the sea, storms, torrential and hailstorms and droughts. 

It is hopeful that the growth of global CO2 emissions is levelling off and that in China (33% of global CO2 emissions) they are already falling. At the same time, a significant reduction is needed, we know what is needed: making our behaviour more sustainable can already produce 40-70% less CO2.

However, I think it will be different. The normal route will not help enough, which is why I think that due to an accumulation of climate calamities, the urgency will become so great that we will bring forward the time à la corona. During the corona crisis, we brought forward time about 10 years and came up with solutions, such as vaccines, that seemed out of reach. I think that with the climate crisis, we may be moving forward 20 years and coming up with solutions that we don't think are possible yet.