Having entered the maritime industry 40 years ago and being part of the transition and developments within the industry over that period I do think we are reaching "a ceiling". The size of ships, in particular container and passenger ships made quantum leaps in just over a decade. Other segments had their scale enlargement as well, dredging, offshore cranage, yachts. Large size in general mean more installed Power ( read; energy consumption)
Comparing to the size of ships in the past the crew number reduced, UMS/ AIS / BNWAS / ECDIS and other smart systems did enter. All to make it easier.
The world fleet continued to grow, demand for crew, new and additional sources for crew were found and while making way for promotion positions remained filled with- or without adequate practical experience and knowledge.
25 Years International Safety Management (ISM) code made entry and has been instrumental to keep things going and made it possible to monitor and evaluate the ship/ crew and shore support performance.
So what is the ceiling?
- I don't foresee ships to become (much) bigger as currently are sailing or are under construction.
- Engine Power will reduce or at least Specific Fuel Consumption (Fossil fuels) will drop.
- Crew numbers on board cargo vessels will not further reduce
- The current sources for seafarers can they supply the future?
- The amount of knowledge that seafarers can take to on while on board ships is at a max.
So rules and regulations dictate a minimum level of compliance for ships. This minimum of rules and regulations continues to grow at frequent intervals and to steer your vessel within this minimum you need to know the maximum in order to be able to perform. This maximum of knowledge applies on board and ashore.
The slightest miss can be picked up by a 3rd party (commercial and operational) who make a big fuss of it ($$$$$).
A chance to display responsibility is not appreciated or rewarded.
Commercial contracts dictate the industry and within the efficient port call windows the vessel management is limited to perform and carry out the statutory drills and trainings, another max.
I remain curious where it will go..........
Keep you posted as my knowledge or insights change.
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