Forget Ukraine: The Russia-U.S. Summit in Saudi Arabia is All About Money

Forget Ukraine: The Russia-U.S. Summit in Saudi Arabia is All About Money

By Cyril Widdershoven - Feb 18, 2025, 5:00 PM CST

Saudi Arabia may host a direct meeting between U.S. President Trump and Russia's President Putin.

Trump’s transactional diplomacy is not just about Ukraine but about securing business deals.

Trump’s proposal to meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia is tied to investments, a stronger U.S.-Saudi relationship, and a broader restructuring of the Middle East

Riyadh
The diplomatic onslaught by the Trump Administration during last weekend's Munich Security Conference is still reverberating across Europe. The unexpected affront by Trump’s representatives, Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of Defense Hegseth, has not only put the Transatlantic relationship on hold but is also seen as a significant move by the Administration to circumvent European partners and Ukraine—an unprecedented effort by the U.S. to impose a peace deal with Russia.

In the coming weeks, all eyes will be on Saudi Arabia, where the Kingdom is expected to host a direct meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. While many see this as a Trumpian move to enforce a peace deal on Ukraine, analysts should look deeper. More is at stake—Trump’s transactional diplomacy is not just about Ukraine but about securing business deals, targeting not only Moscow but also Saudi Arabia and the broader Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The Riyadh Summit could be more about money than peace.

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Amidst concerns from international media and European politicians about the security risks of Washington’s strategy, the Trump Administration's disruptive, business-centric approach is a crucial theme. The choice of Riyadh as the setting for the Trump-Putin Summit should be reassessed, as it underscores the Administration's push for alternative deals and the long-term goal of a Saudi-Israeli rapprochement—one of Trump’s long-standing ambitions.

Trump’s proposal to meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia is tied to investments, a stronger U.S.-Saudi relationship, and a broader restructuring of the Middle East. With one stroke, Trump has thrust Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) into the spotlight. Trump’s admiration for strong, young leaders plays a role, as does Saudi Arabia’s geopolitical influence in the region and its ability to balance relationships between Russia and the U.S.

Officially, the meeting is set to discuss a peace deal for Ukraine. However, the U.S. Administration understands that this will not be achieved in "one day"; the discussions could even have the opposite effect. Russia's demands are clear and not entirely aligned with Trump’s vision. Meanwhile, U.S. corporate interests—especially those of Elon Musk—are also at play. Trump's affinity for MBS and other Arab leaders will significantly influence negotiations. By spotlighting MBS, Washington appears to be pressing Riyadh to advance a deal with Israel while opening doors for Saudi and other Gulf investments in the U.S.

Trump also hopes to push MBS to reconsider his stance on Gaza and Hamas. A shift toward a more pro-U.S. position by MBS could also weaken Riyadh’s ties with Russia and China, which remain at the forefront of Trump’s concerns. Some expect the Trump Administration to encourage Saudi Arabia to take a harder stance against Iran—viewed as the ultimate adversary by Trump’s inner circle.

While diplomatic activity heats up in Riyadh, Trump is simultaneously preparing for a billion-dollar investment summit in Florida. The Saudi sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), is hosting its Future Investment Initiative (FII) Priority Summit in Miami in the coming days. The event will bring together Saudi investors and global financial leaders to discuss potential deals, particularly in the U.S. and Saudi Arabia.

In the coming days, U.S. companies will be courting Saudi counterparts to secure multi-billion-dollar deals, a key political priority for Trump. PIF CEO Yasir Al-Rumayyan will lead discussions with U.S. counterparts, promoting economic partnerships. Trump’s goal for the FII Priority Summit is to secure Saudi investment commitments totaling $1 trillion in the U.S. Currently, MBS has pledged around $600 billion over the next four years, but Trump is pushing to raise the stakes.

Again, Trump’s transactional diplomacy is striking a chord with Arab power players, but significant unresolved issues remain. Behind closed doors in Miami, Trump—who is attending the summit in person—will likely discuss Gaza, Israel, and the potential for strengthened U.S.-Saudi cooperation, including military agreements. By playing on multiple fronts, Trump is positioning MBS and the Gulf Arab states in a delicate balancing act.

For Saudi Arabia, closer ties with an assertive U.S. are appealing, particularly in security and economic cooperation. However, as a leading force in OPEC, Riyadh will not overlook Washington’s demands on oil production and exports. Several deals are under negotiation, but none have been finalized. MBS will also seek to leverage Saudi Arabia's strategic position in the Middle East to ensure that any agreement serves his interests.

A potential wildcard in these negotiations is Saudi Arabia’s role as a source of critical minerals and metals. Trump has already signaled his interest in securing these resources, as evidenced by his demand that Ukraine hand over 50% of its reserves in exchange for continued U.S. military aid. Saudi Arabia is aggressively developing its mining sector, attracting foreign investment, and capitalizing on its vast mineral wealth. MBS could use this as a bargaining chip, as he is known for a more calculated and strategic approach than Trump’s blunt transactional style.

While the spotlight is on the Trump-Putin meeting and speculation about Ukraine’s future, the real story may be different. If Russia refuses to meet Washington’s undisclosed demands, Trump could shift his stance on Ukraine entirely.

However, analysts should look beyond the immediate headlines. Washington’s choice of Riyadh as the summit venue carries broader significance, and the potential fallout from Russia’s response should not be underestimated.

By Cyril Widdershoven for Oilprice.com